This morning, I gave a presentation at eMetrics 2009 titled "Analytics in the Real World". my focus was on the blurring of boundaries between the web and the real world, and the important new role that web analytics practitioners can play in defining goals and metrics for these new systems, given data derived from pervasive sensor technologies. It used to be that the web was its own distinct entity, and that the web and bricks&mortar sides of businesses were kept at arms length. Increasingly, cross-channel scenarios have played out and we've seen the first steps towards measuring in-store behaviour along the lines of looking at things like cross-channel promotions, buy online pickup in store initiatives, etc.. But we need to think much deeper than these basic scenarios.
Computer vision can now in a cost effective way measure human traffic in your venues, simple pressure sensors can be used to drive digital signage based on how customers interact with your products, and the arguments against RFID are gradually being whittled away. What these sensor technologies provide is the means by which venue operators can measure and react to what is happening, in real time. Processing vast amounts of anonymous data to look for trends, to measure aggregate results, and to trigger events. Sound familiar? This is what web analytics practitioners do on a daily basis in looking at traffic to online sites.
The slide deck is posted below. Unfortunately, it's not entirely meaningful without the associated dialogue. If you missed the talk, and are confused (and intrigued) by the presentation, contact me and we can discuss. I've spent a lot of time researching sensor technologies, and have a pretty keen sense for how they should be applied in practice. In fact, that's the bulk of the message in the missing dialogue -- that these are all "cool" technologies, and the hard work here is not on inventing new sensors but rather devising approaches to using technologies such as these to drive your business forward. It's a very exciting space!
(oh, and if you think I pushed the boundary a bit with my opening cartoon, keep in mind that this was the first presentation of the last day of the conference, in a track titled "Analytics on the Edge", AND it was April Fool's Day -- so I felt justified to give my intro a bit of an edge. Besides, if you follow it through to the end you see that I come full circle and that in fact there was a very good reason to discuss this scenario).
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Analytics in the Real World
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
SOA for SSME Guest Lecture
Yesterday, I gave a guest lecture to Kelly Lyons' graduate course on "Services Science, Management, and Engineering" in the Faculty of Information at the University of Toronto. The lecture was about service oriented architecture, specifically its role within the larger context of moving to service-based organizations where IT is increasingly coming out of the back rooms and being driven by the business. This is a huge, broad, topic area, but I did my best with two hours to give the top-level view and lots of pointers that can be followed up on for those interested in learning more.
This was a very interesting group of students to present to, bringing widely differing backgrounds and experience. We got off track a couple of times, discussing my current startup business (Fadow), my work with the World Bank providing IT Strategy consulting to micro-finance institutions, the role of SOA in healthcare, etc.. Overall, it was a stimulating and fun session!
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Don't Click - the first Twitter hack?
I've been in the computing industry a long time. I'm generally pretty careful, but today I got suckered into the same click jacking trick that seemed to get everyone else on Twitter.
It starts with a tweet that says "Don't Click" followed by a tinyURL. Of course, trusting the source of the tweet, I click the link. And being far too curious for my own good, I click the "Don't Click" button on the simple page that comes up in my browser. The next thing I know, I've just had a tweet posted to my feed, that perpetuates this hoax to others.
Turns out, this is ultimately a clever little piece of HTML/CSS coding. It's not a security flaw in Twitter, per se, nor is it a flaw in the browser. The only way to prevent being stung by tricks like this is to have the common sense not to trust every site that you visit.
Now, to be fair. Twitter is a public platform, where one expects everything submitted to be in the public domain (even private messages, as some have learned the hard way).
This is interesting, and I'm sure now that the code is in the public domain there will be lots of copycats. But if you're curious and want to know more about the details behind this click jacking trick, the details are here: http://www.korben.info/petit-cours-de-twitt-jacking.html (site pasted in image form here for those afraid to visit this guy's domain).
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Any iPhone developers in Toronto?
One of the significant differentiators between Apple and its competitors in the smartphone space is its approach to third party applications. It's not simply that developers can build and distribute apps that run on the iPhone. More importantly, the use of iTunes batch payments allows these applications to be sold at price points below the profitability threshold of most competitors. In fact, the most popular paid applications sell for a mere $0.99.
I've been an iPhone user since the first week that the first iPhone was released. I saw the promise of the mobile web that the full-featured and entirely useable browser on the device could deliver. I've always been intrigued with the prospect of building my own native apps for the iPhone; despite the SDK being available for some time, it's taken me until now to try it out. The main reason is that the SDK only runs on Mac; today, finally, I broke down and bought my first MacBook.
My first application for the iPhone was trivial and stupid (not letting that get in my way -- the iFart application made hundreds of thousands of dollars on the app store). But this is a much tougher programming environment than I would have expected. Compared to the rich communities and programming environments built up around Flash, Java, or PHP, the iPhone SDK is like returning to the stone ages. The last time I wrote a lot of applications for mobile phones was in 1999-2000, and the tools from Apple could easily be passed off as being from the same vintage. The difference, though, is that the APIs that can be called are much more sophisticated.
It occurred to me as I was working through my first application that this process would be a lot more fun if the pain and success could be shared with others. I figured that there must be others in the same situation, and ideally some folks who were slightly farther down the path than me. With that in mind, I posted a request on Craigslist:
I'm averaging a response per hour so far. I clearly am not alone; many are intrigued with the prospect of building their own applications, only to feel the pain of a poorly implemented SDK and an incredibly convoluted community site. We'll see where this goes, but I'm confident that this is going to be a lot more fun together!iPhone Application Development (downtown)
Reply to: job-1002062802@craigslist.org [?]
Date: 2009-01-21, 4:01PM EST
I am in the process of learning to write applications for the iPhone, and seeking like-minded developers to join a co-operative. The idea is that we could get together in our spare time, brainstorm on application concepts, and work together on the applications.
For now, I am mostly interested in meeting others interested in the development side. If you have application ideas but not the skill to implement them, then I may be able to accommodate you as time goes on.
If interested, please send me your current skill level with the iPhone SDK, and your availability. I will try to set up an introductory meeting at a local coffee shop sometime this week.
Any other iPhone developers out there in Toronto? Drop me a line if you're interested in joining the "club".
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Edelman's social media lessons from Obama's campaign
With Barack Obama's inauguration two days away, it is fitting to remind ourselves again of the role that social media played in his landslide victory. Edelman has just published a report outlining the strategy and tactics used in Obama's campaign, with lessons that are applicable to anyone looking to build a brand online. This was not the first time that the Internet or even social media have been used in a presidential campaign, but there was something different this time:
"Obama was not the first presidential candidate to raise a million dollars online (McCain ‘00),1 nor was he the first to use Internet grassroots efforts to mobilize online supporters to MeetUp in their local communities (Dean ‘04). However, McCain failed to convert his online donors into votes and Dean failed to channel the online fervor into effective ground support. Obama was the first to do both, by weaving technology and the Internet into the fabric of his campaign. He understood that the value social media could bring to the campaign grew exponentially if online advocacy was elevated to the campaign’s highest levels and integrated into all elements of the organization." -EdelmanI've seen all too often that social media is delegated to the most junior member of a team; the young guy or gal in the office who must "get" this stuff because they spend their free time on Facebook/MySpace/etc. The Obama camp instead made social media a priority at the highest level, as a way to reach and engage voters in two-way communication.
Understanding that social media is about conversation is a critical first step.The traditional advertising and PR guys see social networks as new ways to deliver the same old messages. Obama's team rightly recognized that social media instead provides a way to listen to constituents, adapt messaging, and engage influencers in spreading key messages in their own words.
Edelman's "Crawl, Walk, Run" methodology again reaffirms that you need to listen before you speak on social media. The tools may be different, but at the core you are still marketing -- which means starting with a great product, and listening to your customers. The difference now is that instead of a handful of product evangelists spreading the word on your behalf, you have the potential to engage tens of thousands of bloggers and social media mavens.There are lots of case studies on social media out there, but none as transparently illustrated as the 2008 Obama campaign. This Edelman report is the tip of the iceberg, and recommended reading for anyone planning to leverage social media in 2009.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Case Study: IT Governance at a MFI NGO
A colleague and I were recently charged with providing strategic consulting services to a micro-finance NGO based in the Middle East. In meeting with the director responsible, it occurred to me that this would make an excellent case study for students interested in IT Governance issues. I was given permission to use the general details of the situation in the courses that I teach, but for privacy reasons identifying information has been obfuscated in the version of the case published publicly.
What is Micro-lending?
The concept behind micro-lending is at once simple and world-changing; use peer pressure as collateral on small targeted loans for businesses or aspiring entrepreneurs in impoverished regions. For his pioneering work in the area, Muhammad Yunus (dubbed the "Banker to the Poor") received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006. The organization he founded to serve the impoverished of Bangladesh, the Grameen Bank, has dispersed more than 7 billion dollars in loans since inception, to more than 7 million borrowers (the vast majority of whom are women). Micro-credit is not charity, but rather an approach to lending that focuses on giving hope to small cohesive groups of entrepreneurs. These groups support each other in repaying debt obligations, and are collectively responsible for any debt taken on by a fellow group member. This peer pressure assures that no one takes more than they can handle, and the clear impact in breaking the cycle of poverty assures that all group members are committed to repaying their community of debts.
The client
My client is an MFI in Lebanon (we'll call them "the NGO" in this case), founded on the principles of the Grameen bank and in operation since the mid 1990s. The NGO has administered more than 40,000 loans, mostly to villagers in remote areas of the mountains in Lebanon. They have formed a relationship with one of the local banks, such that collective loans are taken out in the name of the NGO, and repaid directly by the individual borrowers. Reports are delivered to the bank every week, with the identifying information of the borrower and the amount due. If the borrower does not appear and make their payment, the bank will call the loan agent at the NGO who is handling the account who will then follow up with the borrowing group. In the beginning, all loans were group loans, but with time individual loans were added as well. The NGO's managing director would like to see more products added in the future, for example to support loans in Lebanese currency (currently, all loans are in US dollars) or to add Koran-compatible loans.
The current MIS system
Currently, the NGO is facing challenges with its MIS system and is looking for guidance on how to proceed. The current system was developed in the late 1990s, and has at its core a database based on Microsoft Access 1997. The database keeps track of loans administered and payments received. There are separate databases to support group loans and individual loans. The processing side of the system, that calculates interest payments, generates reports that can be delivered to the banks, and allows for uploading of payment details, was written in the same timeframe by a software developer who has currently left the NGO. The source code is available, but for all intents and purposes useless as the development environment used to update the system is no longer available. In fact, the entire infrastucture is running on long-deprecated technology. There have been some complaints by borrowers about rounding errors in their interest calculations, that can lead to a required overpayment of up to $2 (a not-insignificant amount to these borrowers). As well, processing time for generating reports has degraded significantly over time, and now takes several hours to process. Generally speaking, the system does what it needs to do, and all parties are comfortable with the current business process that it supports. The issues of performance are not in and of themselves sufficiently strong arguments for change, but the rigidity of the current system, inability to create and deliver new products, and ultimately lack of reporting capability, all convince the managing director that change is needed.
Challenges in migrating from the old system
The NGO's managing director has a PhD in Civil Engineering, and knows how to manage large and complex projects. However, replacing this MIS has proved a daunting challenge. Two software companies have been engaged over the last years to provide replacements, the first got through part of the implementation before blowing the budget and being canned. The second provided a gap-fit analysis report between the NGO's needs and products available in the marketplace; high-priced management consultants who ultimately provided no path to execution. The managing director has lately been pinning his hopes on an open source MFI software package sponsored by the Grameen Bank. His request to participate in the beta testing of the platform was turned down, and the current implementations in India and Tunisia have been going on for more than two years with no general availability in sight. In the meantime, his current system has been getting slower and slower, and the software stack on which it is based getting farther away from vendor support.
The alternatives
The NGO's managing director is clearly frustrated that his MIS is consuming so much of his time and energy, and continues to fail to allow him to move the business forward. He needs to make a decision and migrate his data to a new system that will allow more detailed tracking of borrowers over time, and will allow him to create and deliver new products. As he sees it, his options are:
- Status quo, perhaps with a hardware upgrade
- Continue waiting for the Grameen Bank's Mifos software to reach general availability
- Deploy a MFI software package (Delta Loan Tracking System) developed in Jordan and serving 11 MFIs in the region
In an attempt to buy time, the NGO's managing director engaged server vendors to get quotes on migrating his existing system to faster hardware. This looks to cost approximately $15,000, but even then the vendors are reluctant to make the sale because there is risk that the older software will not run properly on new hardware. For such a small sale, it is not worth the effort to test the migration of a live system.
Option 2: Grameen Bank's Mifos Software
There are clear advantages to adopting a shared software platform among MFIs; this allows for better diffusion of best practices, common reporting, and access to a talent pool who understands your technology and business practices. However, this project was announced in 2006, and despite a PR bandwagon effect as companies like IBM proclaim partnership in the endeavor, nothing of substance has been released. Beta testing of the platform has been ongoing at the pilot sites in India and Tunisia almost since the projects inception, yet there is still no outlook on general availability. Furthermore, the NGO has two somewhat particular requirements that may not be addressed in early versions of the system: (1) arabic language support; (2) the need to support batch update, since many of the villages still have only dialup internet access.
Option 3: Delta loan tracking system, by Delta Informatics
The third option is to deploy a proprietary software package called the Delta Loan Tracking System, developed by the Jordanian software company Delta Informatics. This system appears to meet the needs of the NGO, and as an added benefit the software has already been deployed in 11 other MFIs in the region. This makes localization a non-issue, and provides for same time-zone technical support. The one caveat with the Delta system is that it is web-based, meaning a painful user experience for loan officers operating from villages without broadband access. This becomes especially problematic if the NGO opts for the option of having the system hosted in Delta's data center, located in the United States. This is an important consideration, the NGO can opt to have the system hosted on their own premise or with Delta Informatics.
Recommendations
My role in consulting on this engagement was to give strategic advice on how to make a decision in the face of this complex scenario. As an academic excercise, this situation offers many aspects for consideration.
(1) The NGO is operating an organization that is highly dependent on an MIS system to operate effectively, yet has a very limited budget for IT investment and operations. This is a common reality, only exacerbated by the NGO's having a limited budget generally. How should an important strategic decision like this one be made in such an instance, where the executive management has limited technical skill and the team charged with the implementation will likely be delivered as part of the execution contract?
(2) The Mifos system as envisioned by the Grameen Foundation is quite a significant undertaking. Comment on the use of an Open Source model as the approach to implementing this platform. Contributors such as IBM have already come on board to participate in the project, but it is not clear that MFIs beyond the beta testing sites in Tunisia and India have had any say. This certainly seems like an unusual approach to creating an open source community. If Mifos has in fact stumbled, while clearly the market need still exists, what might we do to revitalize the effort?
(3) The NGO's managing director has aspirations to take the solution devised here and resell it to other clients. Clearly there is a market need, but how might he best approach that opportunity?
(4) One of the factors to consider in making a decision is the adoption roadmap of DSL and mobile technologies in the mountain regions of Lebanon. A system designed from scratch to support the dialup technology currently available may fail to meet expectations as more communities come online. Conversely, moving to a more interactive system can be painful for those communities still on dialup, and the timeframe to get DSL connectivity is not known. A similar technology roadmap challenge presents itself with mobile payments; it would be very convenient if borrowers could make loan repayments through their mobile phone, rather than make the sometimes lengthy trip into the bank branch in the local town. Both of these technology adoption roadmaps are seemingly outside the control of the NGO, yet ultimately very important in the managing director's decision-making. How would you account for these considerations, and what if any impact can you have on moving this adoption forward?
(5) If the Delta Informatics solution is selected, should the NGO favor the hosted model or the on-premise model? What are the pros and cons of each option, and how might the NGO define contract terms to protect itself under each option?
(6) Finally, how do you think the NGO should proceed?
Top 10 things to do in Lebanon
The Canadian customs agent was clearly perplexed; he had perhaps expected my answer to be a city in South America or Europe, but instead he got “Beirut”. Yep, back from 10 days visiting a friend in Beirut, and touring Lebanon. Taken slightly aback, he followed up with some questions about how long I had known this “friend”, and where I stayed, then got to the question that I knew was really on his mind: “so, what did you do there?” This question was imbued with a tone of "why would you go there?", and without missing a beat, I answered “you know, the usual tourist stuff, visited the Roman, Crusader, and Ottoman ruins, toured the major cities and mountain villages, and had some great meals in local restaurants”. I didn’t get into the details of how the coastal cities are the longest continuously inhabited cities on the planet, from which concepts like the alphabet sprang up a dozen or so thousand years ago. Or how the land shared by multiple sectarian communities paints a rich cultural tapestry, giving insight into the ongoing tensions in the region in ways only appreciated first hand. Lebanon is a fascinating county, and though not the tourist destination that it was in the 1960s and early 1970s, it has never lost its charm. The people are warm and inviting, hospitable and open to sharing their history and culture, and with this post I share with you what was shared with me.
Lebanon is on the Mediterranean Sea, between Syria to the North and West and Israel to the South. Two mountain ranges separate coastal Lebanon from the desert to the west, and provide fertile land and an abundance of water. As a result of its climate and geography, Lebanon has traditionally held closer ties with Europe than the rest of the Middle East, with strong Italian and French influence. Like in many countries in the region, the people are divided along sectarian lines, with nine different sects represented in the government. Also like the other countries in the region, these sects are played against each other as if by master puppeteers, domestic and foreign, using division and coalitions to incite violence and discrimination. In the 1960s, the nightlife in Beirut and coastal beach resorts attracted scores of European tourists, but after more than a decade of civil war the country was ravaged, and currently hosts a mostly Middle Eastern tourist base, with wealthy Saudis taking advantage of the cool mountain climates for their summer homes. The situation is changing; Beirut was largely rebuilt under the Hariri regime, and the expats who fled the violence for Canada and other nations are starting to return, bringing much needed foreign currency. But this story still does not have a happy ending; after much rebuilding the country has recently faced major setbacks every year: Hariri was murdered in 2005, allegedly by Syrian operatives; in 2006 the South of Lebanon was invaded by Israel, repelled by Hezbollah forces in a bittersweet victory that saw the Israeli soldiers raze southern farmlands and release the biggest Mediterranean oil spill in history during their retreat; and in 2007 Christians and Palestinians faced off in the North, provoking sporadic fighting across the country. Lebanon remains a nation divided, with sects each vying for official control while concurrently maintaining their own militias, educational systems, and even managing their own foreign affairs.
This post is not meant to be a history lesson or even a commentary on the foreign or domestic policies of Lebanon, but it is important to understand that this is effectively multiple countries jointly occupying the same land. Communities are pitted one against the other, and though all share a common ancestry and even very similar religious views, there are enough displaced and disillusioned people that it is not at all difficult to incite violence when it can serve a political end. I urge caution to those wishing to visit this country, and respect for the differences that you will encounter. Nevertheless, I do encourage you to visit, because behind the often-brutal headlines that we see in the West you will discover a people who are genuinely open and hospitable, and for those seeking to understand history of cultures and in particular of Western civilization, there are few places so densely packed with important sites. With that introduction out of the way, I give you my top-10 experiences for any tourist visiting Lebanon:
#10 Coastal cities
The Phoenician civilization dates from the 16th century BC to the 3rd century BC. These were sea merchants, and persevered while others fell due to their extensive trade relationships, vast fleets, and heavy fortification. They kept detailed records, and are credited with devising the father of all modern alphabets. The city-states that made up the Phoenician empire are occupied even today, with Byblos considered as the longest continuously inhabited city. Very little remains of the Phoenician civilization, but the cities themselves, Tripoli, Beirut, Saida, and Tyr are all worth visiting. In Beirut you can find examples of Phoenician artifacts at the National Museum, and in Tyre you can see what is left of Alexander the Great’s magnificent road, built by demolishing towns in its path and as a way to deliver 12-story tall siege towers to the coast, allowing for taking the island city of Tyre.
The AUB is an oasis in Beirut, a beautiful centrally located mountain side campus initiated by Protestant missionaries in 1866. Today, the school is non-sectarian, and even during the civil war was one place in the country where Muslims and Christians lived and worked together. The AUB counts as alumni political leaders throughout the Middle East, Africa, and South America. I was fortunate to be traveling with an AUB alumni who got me onto the campus for a tour, and a visit is highly recommended.
Vying for a spot on the new list of 7 wonders of the modern world is the Grotto at Jeita. This natural wonder hosts massive underground caverns with stalactites and stalagmites that are more than 12,000 years old. The illustrations in the accompanying museum put everything in perspective; these natural structures were growing before us, and will continue after we are gone. In the grand scheme of things, Jeudo-Christian religions account for but the tiniest tip of their lifetime.
Note that visitors are not permitted to bring their cameras inside the grotto. Not that it would have been possible to capture the magic of the place on film anyway!
#7 Lebanese mezze
Canada hosts a large Lebanese expat community, and through them we have been exposed to falafel and shawarma takeaway, and mezzes such as hummus and babaganoush. Ottawa and Montreal in particular have some fine examples, but nothing compares to the real thing. I felt like I was tasting falafel for the first time at Sahyoun in downtown Beirut; this is a small restaurant selling ONLY masterfully created falafel, somehow more soft and flavourful than any I have had before. Eaten with whole chili peppers on the side, they are a delight. Mana’eesh with meat, cheese, or zahtar can be found at street stalls across the city, and is always a great quick snack. Lebanon is best known for its mezze, such as babaganoush, foule, and hummus. The master of mezze is the small restaurant called “Le Professeur” in Beirut, an absolute must to sample mezze such as fatteh (hummus with yogurt), mousabha (coarsely mashed hummus with lemon and olive oil), and of course foule - the classic breakfast dish of mashed fava beans. My mouth waters just thinking about these mezze again.
One of the interesting aspects of Beirut is that you can find polar extremes by traveling from one side to the other; anything goes in the Christian communities, with alcohol and legalized prostitution. Across town in the Muslim areas, alcohol is forbidden. The coastal resort town of Jounieh is a Christian suburb North of Beirut, and from the town center a teleferique (cable car) will take you up the mountain to the Maronite community of Harissa. What makes the ride spectacular is the view of the Bay of Jounieh, especially when taken at sunset (or, I suspect, at sunrise).
Lebanon’s political system (confessionalism) is unique, recognizing the various sects that make up the population with corresponding weight in parliament. Additionally, the president is assured to be a Maronite (Christian), the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the House of Parliament a Shi’a Muslim. This latter arrangement was devised by the French when Lebanon was granted independence in 1943, when the Christian population was in fact a majority in the country. However, as demographics changed due to organic growth in Lebanon’s villages (largely Muslim) and an influx of displaced Palestinians (also Muslim) with the formation and expansion of Israel, the division of power no longer matched the will of the overall population. This was one of the key factors leading to the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990). This history lesson is meant to convey one simple reality: as important as the cities are to the Lebanese, the villages are truly the heartland of the country. Even families who have lived in one of the cities for generations continue to identify themselves with the village from which they came, and it is typical to make frequent visits to the South (especially in summer when the mountains offer a cool retreat from the stifling Mediterranean heat).
I have traveled to a lot of places, seen traffic in developed and underdeveloped countries, in small villages and the largest of cities. I have yet to see a place with traffic as unpredictable and hectic as in Lebanon. None of Paris, Rome, Bangkok, or Shanghai hold a candle to the way that motorists get around in the cities of this country. This is something truly worth experiencing first hand, and I give you two anecdotes to give you the sense of how things work. The first happened during a visit to Saida, a city on the coast South of Beirut. We finally found a parking space along the waterfront, where another motorist was pulling out. We pulled up behind the leaving car, turning on our indicators to let others know that we were taking the spot. As they pulled out, an SUV came full speed around us and tried to get into the vacated spot; full speed, and with nowhere to go as we were already pulling in! Absolutely brazen behavior, but we were quicker and secured the spot. The second example was asking for directions in downtown Beirut; we approached a police officer, who told us where the place was, but suggested that the fastest way to get there would be to go the wrong way up a one-way street. “Go ahead, you have my permission”, he said! Driving the wrong way (at full speed) down the many one-way streets in Beirut is actually pretty typical, as is getting exasperated and leaning on the horn if someone dares to come against you going the right way! There are so many other examples, but truly driving in this country is worth experiencing.
I used to carpool to work with a Lebanese friend, and our ritual every Friday was to go in late so that we could stop for knefe on the way at Patisserie Royale at Lawrence and Pharmacy in Scarborough. The Lebanese are known for their sweet tooth, and in fact no occasion is too small to be worth bringing sweets or pastries from one of the many locally-famous patisseries.
In Canada, the many types of Baklava come immediately to mind when we think of Lebanese sweets, but for me the absolute hands-down best of the bunch is knefe. Knefe is a chunk of baked cheese with a phylo-like crust on top, served with a sweet syrup called Ater and in a sesame bun. I tried knefe at many of the most famous patisseries in Lebanon, including Hallab in Tripoli (Tripoli is considered the best place in the country for sweets, and Hallab & Sons is one of the most famous patisserie’s in the city). Each was slightly different, and delightful, but if anything I came away very thankful for Toronto’s own Patisserie Royale, whose knefe (when fortunate enough to arrive when it has been freshly made) easily holds its own.
Given its fertile soil, important strategic location, and abundance of water, it is no surprise that Lebanon has been home to most of the important Western civilizations. The Romans clearly had a presence here, and the temples at Baalbeck (known as Heliopolis, a center for the worship of Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter) remain as evidence. The temple of Bacchus, in particular, is a wonder; this is the largest and best preserved Roman temple anywhere. It is an imposing structure even today, and standing high above the Beqaa valley it continues to inspire awe.
With so many fantastic destinations on this list, it’s hard to call any of them #1. The Qadisha valley and the Cedars earns this designation for the fact that we almost didn’t make it; on my last day in Lebanon, after spending the large part in Tripoli, we decided to venture into the mountains to see if we could spot a cedar tree, Lebanon’s elusive national icon. The drive took my breath away, steep roads taking you into the clouds, with beautiful villages and mountain scenery; just as the sun disappeared we spotted a majestic cedar. Lebanon truly is a country of contrast, and as a final destination for the list I can think of none better than enjoying the day in sunny Tripoli and an early evening at altitude with snow on the ground.
I feel like I could easily have spent a few more days, and another trip is certainly warranted to see other sites in Lebanon and to explore the surrounding countries. The photos from this post are part of a larger photostream, which is available to those interested here. Comments are of course welcome, and feel free to use this post to share with others interested in visiting this fascinating country.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Pascal's Wager
I have always been deeply interested in social organization, including global religions. It is not my intention to make political or religious statements on this blog, but I was reminded of Pascal's Wager over the holidays, and I thought I would share it here. This brought back fond memories of Sociology 101!
Blaise Pascal was of course a 17th century French mathematician, scientist, and philosopher. Among his many contributions was Pascal's Wager, a probabilistic argument to justify belief in God. The rational decision is to lead a virtuous life, because the infinite benefits derived from the case that God does exist vastly outweigh all other options. This same decision logic can be applied to virtually anything, and often confounds people who are not mathematically inclined (especially given prospect theory - our preponderence to valuing loss much higher than gain).
What makes the wager really interesting is the series of objections raised over the years. To accept Pascal's wager, we must first accept that individuals can choose to believe. More importantly, the "right" decision means picking the correct God -- made more difficult because of exclusionary practices built into the rituals and belief systems of most modern religions.
These arguments underscore the inherent irrationality of religious warfare. Once we open our eyes and recognize a world of belief systems, we recognize that it is not our place to condemn others for their differing beliefs, but rather to make up our own mind and hope that we made the right choice.
On Risk, Innovation, and Governance
It's the end of the year, and time for reflection and looking forward to another great year ahead. My big decision last year was leaving a six-year stint with IBM Software Group to co-found Fadow. This was certainly an adjustment, and I'm thrilled to be back in the turbulent world of tech startups! I also came very close to re-starting the PhD process that I had put on hold several years ago, exploring options at Queen's, UofT, and the Instituto de Empresa.
I already hold more University degrees than most (four and counting), but the PhD has been elusive. When I was at Queen's, I got to "all but dissertation", but through a combination of disillusionment, evolving interests, and personal circumstance, I didn't finish. I've never given up being an academic, and have continued to publish, teach, present at conferences, and even contribute to curriculum development as Computer Science departments embrace the needs of the IT industry. A lot can be accomplished without a PhD, but ultimately the degree remains a pre-requisite for many of the careers that I aspire to follow.
My PhD research interests are in IT Governance; not of the compliance variety, but rather with the architecture and frameworks that support technology-based decision making. I am especially interested in governance in open organizations, where technical and human resources span organizations (for example, facilitated by open source collaboration, SaaS business models, service oriented architectures, and cloud computing platforms). This is a research domain ripe for investigation; models exist for handling governance issues within large corporations, and there are very real questions as to whether those models can be adapted to address the needs of our increasingly open organizations. In large, stable corporations (such as those typically researched), the time spent on laying out reference architectures and policies is time well spent. Given a smaller organization in a fast-moving industry (or public sector), there is a very real question as to whether governance aids or hampers innovation. Rather, whether current governance practice in these industries aids or hampers innovation.
Governance is ultimately about creating an environment where the "best" decisions are made; the challenge particular to IT decision-making is the continued strategic importance of IT coupled with knowledge gap at the senior management and board level on IT issues. Consider, for example, the growing importance of social media in brand development and positioning -- how can senior management (who often view themselves as the shepherd of innovation initiatives within their organizations) effectively navigate this transition, in the process opening up their IT infrastructure to the third parties required to effect these initiatives? Embracing the challenges of openness in our IT governance frameworks means devising new architectures that scale and extend beyond the enterprise, forming strategic relationships with third parties (in most cases trusted, but sometimes not), and creating bi-partite IT policies where internal resources continue to be controlled while others are susceptible to external events and must be managed through risk-mitigation schemes. Often, these challenges are so daunting that organizations simply resist following "trends", or embark on new initiatives without understanding the potential repercussions. It's a fascinating space, and I believe that through case studies and testing the boundaries of existing models we can learn valuable lessons.
I look forward to finding my place to carry out this research in 2009. My challenge has always been that this field is inherently multi-disciplinary; business schools see it as too technical, whereas Computer Science faculties have a hard time with the focus on organizational aspects. I guess this is what happens when you throw someone with History, Computer Science, and Management degrees at an industry undergoing an interesting transition; I can't help but look at the challenges holistically, and look forward to defining the models to clarify what is really going on and guide decision-makers going forward.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
My part in "Analytics on the Edge" at eMetrics 2009
I am excited to have been invited to present at the eMetrics 2009 Marketing Optimization Summit, as part of the "Analytics on the Edge" track (scheduling is still to be determined, but tentatively set for April 1, 2009). My presentation is titled "Analytics in the Physical World", and this is the abstract that I have in mind:
We have reached a state of maturity with web analytics, able to monitor and react to complex behaviours and scenarios by our customers. Increasingly, we are able to apply the same technologies in the physical world, enabled by advanced digital signage and other in-store technologies. This talk will review the state of practice of in-store devices that are aware of their surroundings, and discuss why these technologies should be leveraged as part of an effective cross-channel analytics program.There was a time when the virtual world and the physical (real) world were considered distinct; the argument to treat the web distinctly perhaps put most felicitously by John Perry Barlowe in his 1996 "Declaration of Independence from Cyberspace". Over the past decade, these two worlds have increasingly merged and melded, and in e-Commerce we feel this particularly through the realization that very few physical entities lack a corresponding virtual identity, while concurrently our virtual domains are increasingly supporting social gatherings and ties to the real world. It's fascinating to watch this transition take hold, and the plethora of opportunities that follow. I look forward to presenting on the current state of practice and opportunities specifically as they relate to cross channel analytics.
